Thursday, March 24, 2016

The Keef Report: When Are 'Rumblings' Not Wild-Eyed Rumours?



When the Keef says it...

Not that we would ever dare to suggest that a phone call or three from Marky-Mark would ever constitute a rumour or anything.

Did anyone else notice the vagueness in Mr. Baldrey's 'report'?...Specifically, what the heckfire, exactly, does 'firmer' mean?...Interestingly, when a Twittmachine reader rejoiced at the 'good news' Mr. B. replied that there won't likely be an announcement for 'weeks' and noted that, regardless, this is 'reason to hope'...So, given all that, one can only wonder if Global's man in Victoria ever stopped to consider the possibility that he was/is being spun as an advance man of inevitability?
Why make a fuss about this particular tweet, at all?....Well, when someone else with their ear to the ground suggests that they have some inside info on a matter of import....Ya...You guessed it.
Norm Farrell points out a little bit of source-backed reality...Here...As does Grant G in the comments.
Finally, as always, previous editions of the Keef Report can be found...Here.



Grant G said...

Part I

That First Nation support Balderdash is blubbering about is a little misleading....Read this..


"Other hereditary chiefs of the Lax Kw’alaams, however, reacted strongly to the latest letter filed with CEAA.

“We are shocked by this letter. We have been betrayed by our elected leader. Elected band councils have no jurisdiction off of reserve land. The hereditary chiefs of the Nine Allied Tribes of Lax Kw’alaams are the proper titleholders to non-reserve territory such as Lelu Island,” Donald Wesley, hereditary chief Yahaan of the Gitwilgyoots Tribe of the Lax Kw’alaams said in a written statement.

Wesley said the band council did not hold community-wide meetings or get consent of the entire community before this latest letter was written.

“Legal precedents in the Supreme Court of Canada are all in our favour as hereditary chiefs, and we will fight this to the end, whether the band council is on our side or not,” said Wesley.


There is no support for Petronas...Two newly elected, off reserve persons illegally submitted a letter of support...The fur is flying...

And then there was this...The Japanese ambassador to Canada seems strangely worried about Japan not sourcing LNG from Canada...Hmm, there is that LNG glut, guess Japan will only have 20 countries to souce LNG from, not 21....And the highly educated(?) Japanese Ambassador seems confused, he believes LNG use will reduce Japan's GHG emissions...Hmmm..Wonder why Japan is restarting their nuclear plants, three so far and 10 more nuclear plants this year...

Monji says Canada is a promising source of LNG for his country.

However he warns delays in approving the Petronas-led Pacific Northwest LNG proposal could mean Japan signs long term contracts with another supplier.

READ MORE: LNG minister expects decision on Pacific NorthWest facility this spring

Monji says the window is closing and in a buyers LNG market it could soon be another 10 or 20 years before Japan is looking for another LNG supplier.

He says BCLNG will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in his country and he hopes the Trudeau government approves the Petronas project as soon as possible.

Grant G said...

Part II


Of course Mr. K...Because really, Can Petronas sell LNG to Japan for this price?

Platts adds in its report that the latest marker for April delivery is also at the lowest monthly average level seen since July 2009, when the monthly average for August-delivered cargoes was $4.23/MMBtu.

Sentiment for April and further out in May continued to remain bearish due to expectations of extra supplies from both new and recently commissioned projects in the United States and Australia, as well as additional volumes from the Angola LNG project starting in the second quarter of 2016.

The JKM had begun the trading month at $4.7/MMBtu, before sliding to an intra-month low of $4.25/MMBtu in the first half of the month. Expectations of oversupply from the projects coming online weighed on the market sentiment, Platts said.

However, the downward pressure on prices was short-lived, as demand for April cargoes emerged at the same time from several buyers looking to quickly fill their April positions. Buy tenders from Argentina, PTT, SK, Posco, GSPC, Gail, and IOC for prompt April cargoes reversed the downward trend in prices. The Platts JKM rebounded back up to $4.60/MMBtu by March 11.

Max Gostelow of Platts said “While there are still valid concerns that 2016 will be an oversupplied market for most of the year, it’s evident that if buyers all adopt the same attitude and all wait for prices to bottom out before entering the market to buy cargoes, then we could definitely see more volatility in the markets like what has happened in early March.”

He added, however, that the price recovery has stalled as the market expects sellers who had bid unsuccessfully into Argentina’s 15-cargo tender to make those volumes available to the spot market.

“We are also noticing that the Qataris are growing increasingly competitive on price due to their long position, and offering very good price for volumes delivered to their term buyers,” Gostelow said.


Need more..?Woodside browse CANCELLED

Indonesian lng DELAYED UNTIL MID 2020'S



I wouldn't put any stock on the Balderdash utterance..


RossK said...

Thanks Grant--

And thanks most of all for doing something that Mr. B. so often seems not to do.

Which is to show your work.


Grant G said...


Unknown said...

The so-called rumblings are a direct result of Long Gone Baldrey's dutiful role as BC Liberal Fart Catcher. Hopefully he will come up for air soon

RossK said...


Hopefully, indeed.


e.a.f. said...

My translation of that "twit" is, best call an election before the real news gets out and we'll start by trying to get the voters to think the LNG money is on its way. Let Keith take care of that.

After reading the Straight Goods last night I have reason to believe Keith might have the wrong sources regarding First Nations positions on LNG. There are many First Nations people who do not think the LNG, oil, mining route is the right one. They know markets fluctuate and when prices are down you don't get any money. if you get the money up front it gets spent and then there is nothing left. If the salmon runs continue forever, you will continue to eat salmon forever. if there are animals which can be hunted and eaten, you will hunt and eat. That is even before First Nations start to think about their environment.

Keith is dreaming in technocolour. Didn't see anything in the federal budget about "firming up" and all that stuff. All that LNG and those pipelines are not good for this earth. There is way more stuff out there which is more environmental. Anyhow, who is going to buy all of this LNG if manufacturing is down and people have less money? Oyh well let Keith dream...........

Grant G said...

Need a little more info Keith Baldry(dash)?


Lower-cost projects, such as planned developments in Papua New Guinea, should be able to survive the downturn and capitalize on rising demand next decade, Beveridge said. Exxon Mobil Corp. and partners including Oil Search Ltd. are considering expanding their LNG development in the Pacific nation, while Paris-based Total SA and InterOil Corp. are part of a venture that’s planning the country’s second gas-export project.

Starting large new projects in countries including Canada and Mozambique, however, will be difficult and investors should expect setbacks, Beveridge wrote in a note Wednesday.


Qatar is inking longterm LNG buying contracts for $5 dollars...There is no money to be made on Canadian LNG..Maybe Petronas is really plotting a plan B for Prince Rupert....Can you say bitumen pipeline from Alberta to Prince Rupert?


RossK said...


You know, I'm starting to come around to that possibility (the snap election call) also.


e.a.f. said...

Upp, might be an election. Shirley Bond has suddenly decided "solidarity" with min. wage earners is a good thing, so she is "thinking" about raising the min. wage 20 cents an hour some time in the fall. Gee and here I'd predicted an early election prior to the fire season.

Lets see, only 20% of those working for min. wage are teenagers. Approx. 60% are women. If you are single and work full time for min. wage you are still making $2k a yr less than the poverty line.

Message to Shirley: If you and the B.C. Lieberalcons are trying to "convience" min. wage earners you have their interests at heart, try for $15 an hr. Anything less is just stupidity and an insult.