Wednesday, March 09, 2016

This Day In Clarkland....The Pineapple Upside Down Bern Cake.



If the polls said Bernie Saunders was supposed to lose Michigan last night by an even greater percentage than Christy Clark was supposed to lose Lotusland in 2013, how, exactly, did he win?


There is that matter of Michigan having more than a few union folks left over from all those rusting manufacturing plants that are pissed about things like the TPP that Sanders has campaigned, hard, against.

But I reckon those folks were locked in to all of the pollsters algorithms, up front.

So (again), how did Mr. Saunders win?

Well, it looks like it might be for exactly the opposite reason why Ms. Clark won (the general) three years ago.

The Yutes (according to Commandante Markos himself) actually voted:

...(The f)act is, the polling composite had Clinton leading 57-39, so significantly cutting into that margin would’ve been a victory. But outright winning? No pollster came remotely close to calling this one (for Sanders)...


...A big reason for the upset—the youth vote actually turned out! Per the exit polls, they made up 21 percent of the electorate, a larger percentage than 65+ (20 percent). The only state to match that level of youth turnout was Texas, but that vote went 64-34 to Sanders, while the Michigan youth vote went 81-18 Sanders. That was the difference, by far...

You got that Dippers?

Or, put another way...

Look very hard and very closely at what Mr. Eby did in Point Grey and 'Provincialize' the strategy.




Mr. Beer N. Hockey said...

Good work Gazz. Young people matter again!

Anonymous said...

world class nonpartisan BC government?

e.a.f. said...

it would help if the NDP put David Eby out front and centre a bit more. He is about the youngest member they have and he is articulate.

yes, it always has been about getting the vote out. Michigan also has a problem with their water and a Republican governor who hasn't been much help. The younger voter just was fed up and wanted to change things up and that means Bernie.

If the NDP can do it, they might get rid of Christy, but if they don't change their strategy, they will still be the official opposition after the next election unless we have a slew of independents running and that time may have come.

RossK said...


The Yutes always matter, and even more so when they vote.


World class, indeed.


I am no expert on retail politicking (or any real politicking for that matter except, perhaps, for the minutae of the academic kind), but I saw Mr. Eby operate in 2008 and was astounded at his ability to pull all kinds of folks in, including young people with no party machine behind him whatsoever.

2008 you ask?

But that was not an important year in provincial politics, right?

Right - but in the CoV there was a whole lot going on.


Anonymous said...

In addition to Eby's win, Lana Popham and George Heyman also worked really hard to win their traditionally swing ridings.

Bernie's right: hard work and voter turnout, especially young people and voters under 45.


RossK said...


Great to hear from you.