Friday, December 03, 2010

The Dissident Hypothesis....



All Kinds Of Updates.....At the bottom of the post....

I am in the science geek business.

Which means I observe stuff, make predictions (ie. hypotheses/theories) about why something is the way it is, and then I get together with other geeks and we do experiments to try and prove our predictions wrong.

In other words, in the real hard-core world of experimental science you can never prove an hypothesis is right.

Instead, you can only prove it is wrong.

Thus, the fact that nobody has been able to prove that evolution is wrong after a hundred and fifty years of trying to bash the crap out of it means that it is a damn fine one.

(a damn fine hypothesis, I mean).

It also explains why evolution will always be a theory until some sharp young kid comes up with a blockbuster experiment using split-infinitive exons, microRNA, and some weird, twisted piece of of magical, epigenetically-tagged junk DNA to demonstrate that Darwin and Wallace's theories need to be either scrapped or modified

Which, in a round about way, brings me to the actual point of this post.


Now, I know there are more important things to think about/deal with (sorry Dana).....

But this thing with the 'dissident' NDP MLAs has really got me watching and wondering.

And itching to make a prediction.

So here goes....


One thing that is striking to me is that the so called 'dissidents' are not the heavy-lifters in the NDP caucus.

So, I have to wonder how involved they have been in the nitty-gritty of the longterm life of that caucus.

And I'm not just talking about the high-profile, out-front public stuff.

I'm also talking about all the little ins-and-outs, and the long hours in committees, and reams and reams of paper scribbled on while trying to write platforms, and the small-scale retail campaigning as well as the money-raising, and all of that.


As Tony Martinson and I (sorry again Dana!) discussed in the comments to a previous thread, in the life of any longterm project the cohesion of the group working on it will start to break down a little, bit-by-bit, when you have one cohort of folks that are the 'doers' and another that are the, for want of a better word, 'coasters'.

And pretty soon a natural split starts to form without any malice aforethought by the person or persons running things.


When all this self-flagellation and limb amputation with dull (not to mention previously used and gnawed upon), plastic knives and forks finally ends, I am predicting that all this dissent will turn out to have been based on pretty much nothing more than essentially nothing.

Put another way, my dissident hypothesis is that there is no grand grievance and there is almost certainly no grand master plan to move forward.

And if that turns out to be the case it will be a real shame.

Because if this self-amputational excercise continues much longer the BC NDP will soon look, sound, and have the same chance of winning real battles against real enemies, as this guy.*


Alright you people....Bang away.....Prove me wrong and I'll be happy to modify and or scrap the hypothesis.
Oh, and as I also mentioned in the thread referred to above....Most of my committee work is academic....And let me tell you, it would be damned hard to disprove Kissinger's theory that the real reason that academic politics are so vicious is because the stakes are so small...
*Especially if there is snap election called within a few weeks or months after the Coronation of Queen Christy....
Update (Friday morning): New data have arrived in the form of the 'Corky Letter'....May lead to hypothesis modification....waiting for further observations to accrue.....
Double-Secret Probation Update (Friday at lunchtime): And then there is, as Norman Farrell points out, the 'Bob Williams Factor'.....Sheesh....I wonder if any of them there Dippers' navels are burning from all those laser-like staredowns.....
And As For Les Leyne.....Well....He seems to think that Carole James' real problem is that she is not more like....You know.....Gordon Campbell.
Now it's Paul Ramsey's turn....Me thinks his letter will likely create little more than ripples in the tsunami of craziness that is getting set to engulf the Dipperian Zeitgeist.
Next Up.....A VT-C editorial (written by?) suggests that maybe, just maybe, one way out of this is to, at least as a start, send Moe packing.
Paul Willcocks has weighed in.....And he thinks that firstly, the Dippers have gone cuckoo and, secondly, their only hope is to climb down from their perches atop the suicide pact towers.



kootcoot said...

Okay Ross, I'm coming to the plate, though I won't "prove" you wrong, I will attempt to point out some flaws in your analysis - as I perceive them at least.

First, as to:

"One thing that is striking to me is that the so called 'dissidents' are not the heavy-lifters in the NDP caucus"

The way I see it, under Carole James there are NO heavy lifters in the NDP caucus and no heavy or even light lifting going on. In a jungle of low hanging fruit (the various scams and criminal activities foisted on the province during a decade of Campbellization) the CJ led caucus of 30-40 members has been less effective at holding the Capo and his hoods to account than Jenny and Joy during the dark days of the first term.

Other than Adrian Dix occasionally addressing some OUTRAGE in the health care system for ONE DAY and then never mentioning it again - most BC liaR policies are unchallenged and the PAB view is allowed to be the conventional wisdom.

Does Leonard Krog address the issues regarding the illegal sale/giveaway/theft of BC Rail - no, Hell,he won't even answer letters from voters about it.

Does Leonard Krog address the decay of the administration of Justice under the Liberals - not much, he seems more loyal to the holy brotherhood of lawyers - the bar association. Things like inappropriate special prosecutors, RCMP excesses, closed courthouses, reduced legal aid, bargaining in bad faith by the government with the crown attorneys and Rich Coleman's assistance to money launderers everywhere barely seem to capture his attention. And if he notices these things, I certainly can't seem to determine if he has an opinion about any of them.

Carole James seems to have little time for anything other than making nice with the Howe Streeters whose only interest in her is to keep her in place to make it easy for the next Campbell Clone to win the next election. She saves what fire and indignance she might have for those in the party who think that perhaps after her second election loss, one that was her's to lose, it was her decision alone to stay on as leader.

What is her actual position on the HST? I do know that all she can bring herself to say about Craig James is that it seems he may have mishandled the Oak Bay recall petition application. How come she doesn't address the fact that he has pulled many questionable acts against the people and his entire appointment was improper to begin with?

Now she seems to think that she is an elementary school teacher and the caucus is her class and boy is she gonna tell them bad kids where it's at during the upcoming special detention period, or special meeting.

This should have all been dealt with in June of 2009, but it wasn't and if it isn't addressed until next November, we'll likely already be learning to hate Premier Falcon or Premier Clark (not Glen) and will be stuck with them until halfway to 2020.

By that next election in 2015 or so, it won't even matter anymore because the province will be a totally owned subsidiary of mostly offshore corporations (with boards full of retired BC liaRs) and if you want to effect policy you will need to buy shares and attend shareholder meetings and vote there.

I'm already trying to decide where to move if that comes to pass.

RossK said...

OK Koot--

Excellent observations, but two things....

1) I think comparisons might be in order here.

2) As a corollary, are you kind of proving my point that it will be a totally limbless non-ambulatory black knight party if this doesn't stop because there are no white knights on galloping steeds around who can come rushing to the rescue?

Kim said...

I admire Corky Evans and I'm grateful to Jenny Quan for her courage in the past. I have had a great deal of trouble deciding whether I like Carol James and so have avoided debate and just listened instead. I'm now ready to speak, thanks to this article RossK.

I want Mr. Evans to lead a new party. I want him as Premier. He speaks the truth. He really cares about us, unlike so many others in politics. He speaks the truth in plain language without patronizing.

Leah said...

Ross, thanks so much for the link to Corky's letter - it was indeed an eye-opener about the "rest of the story."

Kim, I agree with you! I've been suggesting Corky return to us for a long time now...and will even go out on a limb and say the NDP would win the next election hands down if he were to replace James soon. He has what it takes to LEAD a party, not brutalize it into submission.

Anonymous said...

Uhhh..Ross, just wondering why you still have a link to Sean Holman's place on your's full of Falconater pix...It seems Sean has made a pact with the devil in his quest to have a profitable web biz...

Warren White
Gordon Head, Victoria

Anonymous said...

Cost of living has been spiralling out of control for years now in BC. With the recent announcement of BC Hydro, I'm also contemplating a move from this province. It just is not worth the struggle anymore and with the politics highjacked by the greedy jetset, there seems to be no end to this crap day in and day out.

Sean Holman has always struck me as a Liberal anyway and I am not surprised to see Falcons' ugly face on his site. Shame on him(Falcon) for using his young daughter in his campaign. He is the farthest from any caring human being I know.

Hey Hey, Ho Ho, Carole James has got to go.....


Anonymous said...

Just where does Moe Sihota fit in all this. It seems that things - at least publicly, were no where near as bad as they are now.

I strongly suspect something is going on in the backround and Moe is involved - causing more unrest and friction.

Maybe Corkie Evans should start another party that at least - recognizes what the people of british columbia want and is prepared to listen to them.

Carol James is doing exactly waht Campbell has done - where is the sanity in all of this.


Dana said...

Peace, Ross.

Speculate away.

paul said...

Interesting thesis, but hard to test without some observers reporting from within caucus. I have impressions of most of the 13, but that's not much help.
The Globe had a story today on a research project based on interviews with 65 former members of Parliament, "many of them long-time veterans of federal politics." It found "very little consistency in how MPs define the core purpose of their job."
That might be a factor. When a group comes together to mess with split-infinitive exons, I expect they have lots to argue about but also shared understanding of goals and basic good practice - what they're supposed to be doing.
MLAs come with wildly different notions of their roles and there is no process for developing a common, agreed-on understanding.

Anonymous said...

Paying Moe secretly through the back door was/is STUPID.

The proper way is for some union or think tank type of place to hire and then 'lend' the individual back to the political party.

Look at the history of the BC NDP's past presidents for proof.

RossK said...

Thanks all (especially to the folks that are new here).

I have always felt invigorated by Corky's rhetoric...Have to dig a little more to see if there is any validity to the suggestion that may have been some inaccuracies in his account...

I, also, agree that it would appear that Mr. Sihota does appear to be part of the issue here...

I honestly think that to compare Carole James' actions to those of Gordon Campbell in this regard is not quite right....In fact, I would argue that none of this would have happened if Ms. James' was as heavy-handed in all aspects of caucus discipline as was (still is?) Mr. Campbell.

Paul has a valid point - my hypothesis really is overly speculative without reliable observations from somebody on the inside...I just wanted to get it out there because I really don't see any rhyme or reason in this race to self-destruction.

Finally, a number of folks are slagging Sean Holman for taking advertising....That is just flat-out crazy...Unlike pikers like us, Sean is actually trying to make a living at what he does (even Paul's blog is, I hypothesize, a hobby)...If you want to keep Sean from taking ads, send him money (seriously)...And for those of you concerned that Sean has ads up for Kevin Falcon, I have to ask the following...."How come no one complained when the ad for Guy Guenter first popped up?"...Sorry to be so strident about this, but I honestly believe that Mr. Holman is the best of all the pro-reporters/commentators covering provincial politics right now....Finally, his archives are the best history of those politics in the not-so Golden Era....