MatterVille
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Updated: Thurs Oct 15th....I'll have a more comprehensive BC-wide overview on the weekend...In the meantime, someone has made a fantastic Wiki-Page which keeps track of all the riding-specific polling countrywide...Here.
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The folks at LeadNow have made a select number of strategic voting recommendations based on riding-specific polling numbers that tell them that a vote for any other candidate is a potential vote for the Conservatives.
And it's important to note that they are telling we, the majority that make up the Con-Stoppers, to go all in for eight Dippers and eight Liberals Canada-wide.
In British Columbia it's a different story, again based purely on the numbers...
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - Alistair MacGregor, NDP...There is no evidence of a big Liberal surge here and the Green number is scary high (but not anywhere near the winnable range)....the Con is closer than you think (less than two MOE's)
Kootenay-Columbia - Wayne Stetski, NDP...LeadNow's last poll was late Sept, so I feel a little uncomfortable with this....But still there was no evidence of any BigMo for the Liberal and the Con and Dipper were/are in a dead heat.
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Sheila Malcomson, NDP...I know the Dippers screwed up here, but the Green, Paul Manley, looks to have levelled-off in the low twenties which just cannot win.
North Okanagan-Shushwap - Jacqui Gingras, NDP...Two recent polls from Oracle and Insights West have the Dipper and the Con neck-and-neck...This is a place where a last minute Trudeau bump could give it to the Con...And, regardless, the Green is hovering at 10% which is enough to decide it...Do the right thing to stop the Con.
North Okanagan-Shushwap - Jacqui Gingras, NDP...Two recent polls from Oracle and Insights West have the Dipper and the Con neck-and-neck...This is a place where a last minute Trudeau bump could give it to the Con...And, regardless, the Green is hovering at 10% which is enough to decide it...Do the right thing to stop the Con.
North Island - Powell River - Rachel Blaney, NDP....There has been some Con fall-off lately, but don't forget that the shenanigans are sure to surface to close that gap so please don't chance it Lib and Green leaners as your first choices are both below 20 and are out if it.
Port Moody -Coquitlam - Fin Donnelly, NDP....Ya, he is in trouble given event earlier in the campaign...But nobody can come even close to beating the Con so please don't waste your vote.
Now.
Many folks might be thinking that Mr. Trudeau is going to win so why bother.
Well.
If you really feel that way you should go read Eric Grenier's latest, because he who keeps track of multiple polls closest does his best to make a prediction but, in the end, gives up because it's still too close to call.
OK?
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And what about the Lotuslandian ridings not on the above list?....They, I think are going to have to wait...For example, it looks like VanGranville, based on multiple polls, is a statistical Non-Con dead-heat between the Liberal and the Dipper...
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7 comments:
A: No concrete evidence that the Liberals are going to win.
B: Prince George-Cariboo looks like a possible pickup for the NDP.
I voted strategically when I registered two weeks ago in North Island - Powell River :P
And it's great to be home :D
GAB
I also voted strategically in my riding (North Island - Powell River). I only had to wait in line 22 minutes. There was a good turnout, even though it was a holiday weekend. Great to see so many folks getting out to vote.
Anon-At-The-Top--
Both points taken.
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GAB!
Great to have you home!!!
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Anon-Directly-Above--
Thanks for the update. Glad to hear that you didn't have to deal with big lines.
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Never been polled in my life. Wonder how accurate they can be anyways.
Looks like the crony capitalist Media are afraid of strategic voting...
The Vancouver Sun is saying it is risky and not really democratic.
If Harperman is re-elected you will probably end up on an enemies list for having suggested it.
Chuck--
For this strategic voting thing riding-specific polls really do matter.
In fact, one of them helped voters do the right thing in Esquimalt in 2011.
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Anon-Above--
Ya, I saw that...The header was the real kicker (much more fear-inducing than the actual story by Peter O'Neill)
Will try to have something up later today.
As for the enemies list thing...Well...Like a whole lotta good people said in the age of Nixon, including the good Docktor,....They were disappointed when Daniel Schorr read it out while on the TeeVee and found out that they were NOT on it.
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