Stopping Cons In Lotusland...A Riding-By-Riding Compendium For All Of British Columbia.

WeAreTheSeventy
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The following are my best guestimates about what you can (and, just as importantly, I suppose, can't) do to try and 'Stop the Cons' in every single riding in British Columbia...

The totals are: 'Vote Strategically For The Dipper' in 14 ridings... 'Vote Strategically For The Liberal' in 9 ridings...'Vote Your Conscience' in 19 ridings...

Feel free to throw in your two cents in the comments...

I'll make changes that make sense and/or where I've messed up right up until the last minute Sunday night....


Abbotsford:  Vote your conscience...There have been no riding-specific polls here and history says the Con should be way ahead...But, never under estimate the work of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey and friends to raise the Dipper vote.

Burnaby North-Seymour:  Strategically Vote NDP...I'm ignoring that one outlying Mainstreet poll which gave a lone 2nd place to the Liberal to make this call...Most importantly, the data really do suggest that it is folly to vote Green here...Sorry Dr. Quarmby - any other election, sure, but make no mistake, the Con could win here if there is a two + Green split here....OK?

Burnaby South:  Vote your conscience... The Dipper is strong here, so it probably doesn't matter...But there have been no riding-specific polls...So...If you are a 'leaner' rather than strongly 'decided', you could make sure the Con is stopped, cold, by laying off Red and Green.

Cariboo-Prince George:  Stategically Vote NDP...This is a little bit tough because of a possible rising tide for Mr. Trudeau regionally...But...There is a riding-specific poll that matches the historical norms which has the Dipper well ahead of the Liberal...Thus, to stop the Con, who appears to have come back to the pack,  I suggest you go Orange...The Greens, thank the Spaghetti Monster, look to be less of a factor here than down south.

Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola:  Strategically Vote Liberal...  OK, I'm way out on a limb here without any riding-specific polling data, but...History suggests the Liberal is in 2nd and there appear to be a whack of Green votes here that CANNOT WIN...So, if folks were to lay of the Dipper AND the Green AND if there is a bit of a Con swoon...Well?

Chilliwack - Hope:  Vote your conscience... Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway.

Cloverdale - Langley City:  Vote your conscience...Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway...Update: Laila sent a note, via the Twittmachine, that the Liberal vote may be decent here for candidate-specific reasons.

Coquitlam - Port Coquitlam:  Greens Only - Vote Strategically Liberal or NDP... The Con is vulnerable, but the lone riding-specific poll can't distinguish between Dipper and Liberal, both of whom look to have a shot...So, Green leaners who were to go either Red or Orange could actually stop the Con here...Seriously.

Courtenay - Alberni:  Strategically Vote NDP... The Dipper is in potential trouble to the Con here but, make no mistake, the NDP is still the clear strategic vote choice in this riding...The real danger here, as is the case with so many Van-Isle ridings, is the potential Green bleed which four (count 'em, four!) riding-specific polls have pegged at between 10 and 15 percent...Listen-up Greens leaners! Your first choice candidate cannot win... But you could elect a Con if you don't move over to the Orange side of the ledger...OK?

Cowichan - Malahat - Langford:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper looks to have comfortable lead...But the Con is within striking distance according to a recent riding-specific poll which had the Green vote at a freaking 19%......Greens leaners! You cannot win...  But there is actually an outside chance that you could elect a Con by not voting Orange because you think it's a fait accompli...

Delta:  Vote your conscience... Jeez Louise...I wish there were riding-specific data here to give us some indication of which way the wind is really blowing across the flatlands of 'Mall Land Looming'...Grenier's predictor has the Liberal in the lead but, based on the way he does his thing (as he himself has made clear - see postscript below), this is largely based on history and regional polling...Thus, I think Grenier's call here is very soft, especially given that this is one of those 'new' ridings...Long story getting longer?...I thought about calling this Strategic Liberal, but then realized that if I lived in this riding I would have a very hard time laying off the Dipper myself given the lack of hard numbers...Others may feel differently.

Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke:  Vote Strategically NDP.... If this wasn't southern Vancouver Island it would be a 'Vote your conscience' given that the Dipper is in the lead and the Con is relatively weak based on two recent riding-specific polls...But...The Green vote here may be as high as 20% which is a really, really dangerous thing...So, like a broken record, I once again feel compelled to say...Greens leaners... Your first choice candidate cannot win!!!....However, you need to understand that there is an outside chance you could elect a Con if you don't vote Orange..Same with you Liberal leaners also, as your first choice is also barely cracking 20%... OK?

Fleetwood-Port Kells:  Vote Strategically Liberal...The data are a little weak with only one riding-specific poll from Mainstreet...But Grenier too suggests that the Liberal could actually win...Therefore, this is one where Dippers and Greens could stop the Con by laying off of their preferred candidates because they both look to be out out of the race.

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Vote Strategically NDP...No riding-specific polling data available but, clearly, the Dipper is the only one who has a chance to stop the Con...Liberals and Green leaners (the latter of which are not insignificant here) who go Orange could really make a difference if there is any kind of a regional Con swoon.

Kelowna-Lake Country:  Vote your conscience... History and no riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con lock here.

Kootenay-Columbia: Vote (Very Strongly) Strategically NDP...History and one riding-poll strongly suggest that the Dipper has a shot here....Neither the Liberal (even if there were to be a massive, nation-wide Justin effect) nor the Green (which might have up to 10%) have a chance...But just a couple of thousand votes from both could actually stop the Con for good... Do you hear that Red and Green leaners?...You...Can....Stop...The...Con by moving to the Orange candidate.

Langley-Aldergrove: Vote your conscience... I guess you could rename this riding 'Kelowna-South' if you wanted too, except that there is a bit of a Green presence here that won't matter because history and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon:  Vote Strategically (But Softly) NDP... No riding-specific data to go on here, but....Historically strong second place for the Dipper and a bit of a Green presence...So, if folks laid off the Liberal and the Green candidates, and if the Con were to swoon into the mid-30's...Well...There is a long shot chance that the latter could be stopped.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith: Vote Strategically NDP... I know the Fed-Dipper braintrust screwed up here and sent Mr. Manly to the Greens but two riding-specific polls are telling us that the Con actually has a shot to catch the NDP candidate in this riding, in part because of the 20% bleed to Manly...The Liberal is probably only at 15%...So, in my opinion, the choice is clear in that leaners should lay off both the Red and the Green candidates to ensure that the Con is stopped mid-Island.

New Westminister - Burnaby: Vote your conscience... History, the Big Muddy, and Tugboats strongly suggest an NDP lock here.

North Island-Powell River:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper here is strong....So, some folks (i.e. Green leaners?) may feel it is safe to vote their conscience...But the Con is in the high 20's, at least, and while the Dipper was at that magic 41 way back in mid-September, clearly Dipper support has fallen a little since then...So, I am refusing to see this as a safe 'Non-Con' seat...It looks like both the Liberal and the Green candidates are both at less than 20%, thus voters leaning that way can ensure that the Con is stopped by moving to the Orange side of the ledger.

North Okanagan-Shushwap: Vote Strategically NDP... Three very recent riding-specific polls by three different polling firms all have the Dipper in 2nd with a shot to stop the Con...This one is a surprise, but if enough Liberal and, especially, Green  (who might have 10%) leaners were to vote Orange the Con could be stopped...In the Okanagan!

North Vancouver:  Vote Strategically Liberal... Riding-specific polls say that it is only the Liberal that can beat the Con...So...Folks leaning towards the Dipper and the weather person Greeniac need to lay off both of them and vote Liberal to make sure the Con is stopped....(Sorry NVG).

Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge: Vote Strategically NDP... This is NOT a pipe dream...History and a riding-specific poll suggest the Dipper has a shot... Just as importantly, history and the recent data very strongly suggest that both the Liberal and the Green are way out of it....Thus, if only a thousand Red and Green leaners, respectively, were to vote NDP instead the Con could very conceivably be stopped...For real.

Port Moody - Coquitlam: Vote Strategically NDP... This should be a safe Dipper seat...But Mr. Donnelly fell back to within 7% of the Con after the refugee thing...What's more, no riding specific polling has been done since the 3rd week of September...Through it all, the Liberal has not gotten to 20% and the Green has not gotten to 10%...So, Red and Green leaners - your first choice cannot win...Thus, you can make sure the Con does not win by voting Orange.

Prince George-Peace River-Northern Frackery: Vote your conscience... History and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.

Richmond Centre: Vote Strategically Liberal...This is one of those ridings where the regional Justin factor could give the Liberal a shot...That really is a bit of a suggest-o-gram but, clearly, history says the Dipper has no chance...So if Orange leaners (and the relatively weak Green voter contingent) can lay off their first choice and vote Liberal there is a chance that the Con can be stopped.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: Vote your conscience...Everybody who lives there (and/or who has gotten off the ferry at Swartz Bay and driven the Pat Bay into Victoria recently) knows this is a lock for Lizzy.

Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vote your conscience... Dipper Cullen in a Con-stopped walk given the lack of any evidence of vote bleed to the Liberals or the Greens. 

South Okanagan-West Kootenay: Vote Strategically NDP...Two recent riding-specific polls suggest that the Dipper may have a slight lead over the Con in this new riding...These polls also suggest that the Liberal, while doing OK cannot win,....Thus, a Justin effect could actually really hurt here if it takes a couple of ticks away from the Dipper on the last weekend...There are also some Green votes to be gotten here...So, Red and Green leaners must lay off their first choice and vote Orange to help give the Dipper a solid shot at stopping the Con here.

South Surrey-Does Diane Watts (Get To) Rock?: Vote Strategically Liberal...There are no riding specific data here, but history and Eric Grenier say the Dipper has no chance...So, if there is a regional Justin effect and if the Orange and Green leaners were to lay off their first choice and go Liberal instead it is possible that Ms. Watts could be made to pay for toeing the Con party fear-mongering line.

Steveston-Richmond East: Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal.... It's a new riding in a Connish area where, in aggregate, the Liberals are strongly 2nd...So, given that the Dipper and the Green have no chance, if folks who lean that way were to vote Liberal instead, there is a wee bit of a chance that the Con could be stopped (Grenier actually has this one leaning Liberal, presumably because of the regional Justin effect layered over the history)...However, there are no riding-specific data, which is why this is a 'soft' strat-vote call.

Surrey Centre: Vote your conscience...I wish I could make the call to go all out Dipper here given that he is the (barely) incumbent...But there are no riding-specific data and Grenier sees the regional Justin effect getting the Liberal decently close, which is why I'm not making a Strat-Vote call except to say that this is one of those ridings where absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green, because if they very well could be working to help elect the Con (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).

Surrey-Newton: Vote your conscience... It's one of those 'new' ridings, but you could make a case for it belonging to the Dipper Simms...However, the aggregate votes from 2011 suggest it could go any which way. Thus, in the absence of riding-specific polls (why the heck aren't there so few in the South of the Fraser ridings anyway!!?) I honestly believe it wouldn't be prudent to make a strat-vote calll given the potential for that regional Justin possibility...The only thing that can be said for sure, again, is...Absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green in this riding if they don't want to see it go to the Cons (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).

Vancouver-Centre...Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal... Should be Hedy in a walk, right?....Well, the Con was actually reasonably close last time when that darned Green vote was 15%. So, sorry Dippers, but, given that, I'm making the strat-vote Red call here...Honestly, if it were any other election...(and if somebody actually has some hard numbers to share here, I'd be happy to reverse this one).

Vancouver East...Vote your conscience....She's no Libby Davies, but... The Dipper Kwan can't lose.

Vancouver Granville: Vote your conscience (with a big, fat green asterisk)... I guess this is one of the ones where I'm going against the party line...But....Looking at the four riding-specific polls I cannot see a strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Dipper....And, if you pull out the single outlying Mainstreet poll, I see no strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Liberal either, even with the potential Justin effect...So, what to do?...Well...Both the Red and the Orange are strong enough that if nobody (and I mean nobody!) with a progressive bone in their body were to vote Green, the Stealth-Con (i.e. the candidate that nobody in the riding has actually seen) can be stopped, regardless who actually wins...OK?

Vancouver Kingsway: Vote your conscience...This is a lock for the Dipper, Davies (Don, not Libby)...And, in my opinion, rightfully so.

Vancouver South: Vote Strategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...The riding-specific polls strongly suggest that the Liberal candidate has a real shot to stop the Con Wai Young (who just may be the worst MP, literally, ever)....Importantly, the Dipper has NO CHANCE here...Thus, if Orange and Green leaners vote Liberal instead, the Con Young can be sent packing for good....Do it!....And if you O&G leaners need a little more impetus, please understand that the despicable 'Hookers and Heroin' print ad that the Cons ran recently was clearly designed to target a specific Liberal-leaning demo that make up a significant slice of the electorate in ridings like this.

Vancouver Quadra: Vote your conscience... A lock for the Liberal, Murray...And, in my opinion, rightfully so (despite her previous stint as elGordo's Earth Wind and Fire minister provincially).

Victoria: Vote your conscience...This is one that really bugs me given that the Green, Roberts, might have an outside shot to knock off the Dipper, Rankin (which is purely projection from Grenier given the lack of riding-specific polling data)...If there was even a smidgeon of a chance that the Con could win here I would make a strat-vote Orange call but there is not...So... Why does this one bug me so much if the Con can't win?...Well...It is Mr. Rankin who is the proven environmentalist here, not the former MoCo maven Ms. Roberts.

West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Rafe Mair Country: Vote Stategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...There have been four riding-specific polls by three different outfits here since August...All have the Liberal in front with the Con second...However, the Liberal lead is not that large...Importantly, the potential Green and Dipper vote is significant but neither can win...So...To ensure that the Con is stopped Orange and Green leaners must vote Liberal...OK?


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If you want to look at numbers yourself, there is a really great aggregation of all the riding-specific polls in the country, including B.C.....Here....Eric Grenier's 'predictions' are....Here (but if you are not used to looking at/thinking about these be sure to read his disclaimer first [scroll down a little, here]).


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