Sunday, October 18, 2015

Stopping Cons In Lotusland...A Riding-By-Riding Compendium For All Of British Columbia.

WeAreTheSeventy
PercentVille

The following are my best guestimates about what you can (and, just as importantly, I suppose, can't) do to try and 'Stop the Cons' in every single riding in British Columbia...

The totals are: 'Vote Strategically For The Dipper' in 14 ridings... 'Vote Strategically For The Liberal' in 9 ridings...'Vote Your Conscience' in 19 ridings...

Feel free to throw in your two cents in the comments...

I'll make changes that make sense and/or where I've messed up right up until the last minute Sunday night....


Abbotsford:  Vote your conscience...There have been no riding-specific polls here and history says the Con should be way ahead...But, never under estimate the work of Mr. Beer 'N Hockey and friends to raise the Dipper vote.

Burnaby North-Seymour:  Strategically Vote NDP...I'm ignoring that one outlying Mainstreet poll which gave a lone 2nd place to the Liberal to make this call...Most importantly, the data really do suggest that it is folly to vote Green here...Sorry Dr. Quarmby - any other election, sure, but make no mistake, the Con could win here if there is a two + Green split here....OK?


Burnaby South:  Vote your conscience... The Dipper is strong here, so it probably doesn't matter...But there have been no riding-specific polls...So...If you are a 'leaner' rather than strongly 'decided', you could make sure the Con is stopped, cold, by laying off Red and Green.


Cariboo-Prince George:  Stategically Vote NDP...This is a little bit tough because of a possible rising tide for Mr. Trudeau regionally...But...There is a riding-specific poll that matches the historical norms which has the Dipper well ahead of the Liberal...Thus, to stop the Con, who appears to have come back to the pack,  I suggest you go Orange...The Greens, thank the Spaghetti Monster, look to be less of a factor here than down south.


Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola:  Strategically Vote Liberal...  OK, I'm way out on a limb here without any riding-specific polling data, but...History suggests the Liberal is in 2nd and there appear to be a whack of Green votes here that CANNOT WIN...So, if folks were to lay of the Dipper AND the Green AND if there is a bit of a Con swoon...Well?


Chilliwack - Hope:  Vote your conscience... Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway.


Cloverdale - Langley City:  Vote your conscience...Strong Con with no riding-specific poll data to give us an idea of a strong 2nd place...Also, probably not a heckuva lot of Green votes to move over to make a difference anyway...Update: 
Laila sent a note, via the Twittmachine, that the Liberal vote may be decent here for candidate-specific reasons.

Coquitlam - Port Coquitlam:  Greens Only - Vote Strategically Liberal or NDP... The Con is vulnerable, but the lone riding-specific poll can't distinguish between Dipper and Liberal, both of whom look to have a shot...So, Green leaners who were to go either Red or Orange could actually stop the Con here...Seriously.


Courtenay - Alberni:  Strategically Vote NDP... The Dipper is in potential trouble to the Con here but, make no mistake, the NDP is still the clear strategic vote choice in this riding...The real danger here, as is the case with so many Van-Isle ridings, is the potential Green bleed which four (count 'em, four!) riding-specific polls have pegged at between 10 and 15 percent...Listen-up Greens leaners! Your first choice candidate cannot win... But you could elect a Con if you don't move over to the Orange side of the ledger...OK?


Cowichan - Malahat - Langford:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper looks to have comfortable lead...But the Con is within striking distance according to a recent riding-specific poll which had the Green vote at a freaking 19%......Greens leaners! You cannot win...  But there is actually an outside chance that you could elect a Con by not voting Orange because you think it's a fait accompli...


Delta:  Vote your conscience... Jeez Louise...I wish there were riding-specific data here to give us some indication of which way the wind is really blowing across the flatlands of 'Mall Land Looming'...Grenier's predictor has the Liberal in the lead but, based on the way he does his thing (as he himself has made clear - see postscript below), this is largely based on history and regional polling...Thus, I think Grenier's call here is very soft, especially given that this is one of those 'new' ridings...Long story getting longer?...I thought about calling this Strategic Liberal, but then realized that if I lived in this riding I would have a very hard time laying off the Dipper myself given the lack of hard numbers...Others may feel differently.


Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke:  Vote Strategically NDP.... If this wasn't southern Vancouver Island it would be a 'Vote your conscience' given that the Dipper is in the lead and the Con is relatively weak based on two recent riding-specific polls...But...The Green vote here may be as high as 20% which is a really, really dangerous thing...So, like a broken record, I once again feel compelled to say...Greens leaners... Your first choice candidate cannot win!!!....However, you need to understand that there is an outside chance you could elect a Con if you don't vote Orange..Same with you Liberal leaners also, as your first choice is also barely cracking 20%... OK?


Fleetwood-Port Kells:  Vote Strategically Liberal...The data are a little weak with only one riding-specific poll from Mainstreet...But Grenier too suggests that the Liberal could actually win...Therefore, this is one where Dippers and Greens could stop the Con by laying off of their preferred candidates because they both look to be out out of the race.


Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: Vote Strategically NDP...No riding-specific polling data available but, clearly, the Dipper is the only one who has a chance to stop the Con...Liberals and Green leaners (the latter of which are not insignificant here) who go Orange could really make a difference if there is any kind of a regional Con swoon.


Kelowna-Lake Country:  Vote your conscience... History and no riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con lock here.


Kootenay-Columbia: Vote (Very Strongly) Strategically NDP...History and one riding-poll strongly suggest that the Dipper has a shot here....Neither the Liberal (even if there were to be a massive, nation-wide Justin effect) nor the Green (which might have up to 10%) have a chance...But just a couple of thousand votes from both could actually stop the Con for good... Do you hear that Red and Green leaners?...You...Can....Stop...The...Con by moving to the Orange candidate.


Langley-Aldergrove: Vote your conscience... I guess you could rename this riding 'Kelowna-South' if you wanted too, except that there is a bit of a Green presence here that won't matter because history and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.


Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon:  Vote Strategically (But Softly) NDP... No riding-specific data to go on here, but....Historically strong second place for the Dipper and a bit of a Green presence...So, if folks laid off the Liberal and the Green candidates, and if the Con were to swoon into the mid-30's...Well...There is a long shot chance that the latter could be stopped.


Nanaimo-Ladysmith: Vote Strategically NDP... I know the Fed-Dipper braintrust screwed up here and sent Mr. Manly to the Greens but two riding-specific polls are telling us that the Con actually has a shot to catch the NDP candidate in this riding, in part because of the 20% bleed to Manly...The Liberal is probably only at 15%...So, in my opinion, the choice is clear in that leaners should lay off both the Red and the Green candidates to ensure that the Con is stopped mid-Island.


New Westminister - Burnaby: Vote your conscience... History, the Big Muddy, and Tugboats strongly suggest an NDP lock here.


North Island-Powell River:  Vote Strategically NDP... The Dipper here is strong....So, some folks (i.e. Green leaners?) may feel it is safe to vote their conscience...But the Con is in the high 20's, at least, and while the Dipper was at that magic 41 way back in mid-September, clearly Dipper support has fallen a little since then...So, I am refusing to see this as a safe 'Non-Con' seat...It looks like both the Liberal and the Green candidates are both at less than 20%, thus voters leaning that way can ensure that the Con is stopped by moving to the Orange side of the ledger.


North Okanagan-Shushwap: Vote Strategically NDP... Three very recent riding-specific polls by three different polling firms all have the Dipper in 2nd with a shot to stop the Con...This one is a surprise, but if enough Liberal and, especially, Green  (who might have 10%) leaners were to vote Orange the Con could be stopped...In the Okanagan!


North Vancouver:  Vote Strategically Liberal... Riding-specific polls say that it is only the Liberal that can beat the Con...So...Folks leaning towards the Dipper and the weather person Greeniac need to lay off both of them and vote Liberal to make sure the Con is stopped....(Sorry NVG).


Pitt Meadows - Maple Ridge: Vote Strategically NDP... This is NOT a pipe dream...History and a riding-specific poll suggest the Dipper has a shot... Just as importantly, history and the recent data very strongly suggest that both the Liberal and the Green are way out of it....Thus, if only a thousand Red and Green leaners, respectively, were to vote NDP instead the Con could very conceivably be stopped...For real.


Port Moody - Coquitlam: Vote Strategically NDP... This should be a safe Dipper seat...But Mr. Donnelly fell back to within 7% of the Con after the refugee thing...What's more, no riding specific polling has been done since the 3rd week of September...Through it all, the Liberal has not gotten to 20% and the Green has not gotten to 10%...So, Red and Green leaners - your first choice cannot win...Thus, you can make sure the Con does not win by voting Orange.


Prince George-Peace River-Northern Frackery: Vote your conscience... History and a lack of riding-specific polling strongly suggest a Con-lock here.


Richmond Centre: Vote Strategically Liberal...This is one of those ridings where the regional Justin factor could give the Liberal a shot...That really is a bit of a suggest-o-gram but, clearly, history says the Dipper has no chance...So if Orange leaners (and the relatively weak Green voter contingent) can lay off their first choice and vote Liberal there is a chance that the Con can be stopped.


Saanich-Gulf Islands: Vote your conscience...Everybody who lives there (and/or who has gotten off the ferry at Swartz Bay and driven the Pat Bay into Victoria recently) knows this is a lock for Lizzy.


Skeena-Bulkley Valley: Vote your conscience... Dipper Cullen in a Con-stopped walk given the lack of any evidence of vote bleed to the Liberals or the Greens. 


South Okanagan-West Kootenay: Vote Strategically NDP...Two recent riding-specific polls suggest that the Dipper may have a slight lead over the Con in this new riding...These polls also suggest that the Liberal, while doing OK cannot win,....Thus, a Justin effect could actually really hurt here if it takes a couple of ticks away from the Dipper on the last weekend...There are also some Green votes to be gotten here...So, Red and Green leaners must lay off their first choice and vote Orange to help give the Dipper a solid shot at stopping the Con here.


South Surrey-Does Diane Watts (Get To) Rock?: Vote Strategically Liberal...There are no riding specific data here, but history and Eric Grenier say the Dipper has no chance...So, if there is a regional Justin effect and if the Orange and Green leaners were to lay off their first choice and go Liberal instead it is possible that Ms. Watts could be made to pay for toeing the Con party fear-mongering line.


Steveston-Richmond East: Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal.... It's a new riding in a Connish area where, in aggregate, the Liberals are strongly 2nd...So, given that the Dipper and the Green have no chance, if folks who lean that way were to vote Liberal instead, there is a wee bit of a chance that the Con could be stopped (Grenier actually has this one leaning Liberal, presumably because of the regional Justin effect layered over the history)...However, there are no riding-specific data, which is why this is a 'soft' strat-vote call.


Surrey Centre: Vote your conscience...I wish I could make the call to go all out Dipper here given that he is the (barely) incumbent...But there are no riding-specific data and Grenier sees the regional Justin effect getting the Liberal decently close, which is why I'm not making a Strat-Vote call except to say that this is one of those ridings where absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green, because if they very well could be working to help elect the Con 
(i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).

Surrey-Newton: Vote your conscience... It's one of those 'new' ridings, but you could make a case for it belonging to the Dipper Simms...However, the aggregate votes from 2011 suggest it could go any which way. Thus, in the absence of riding-specific polls (why the heck aren't there so few in the South of the Fraser ridings anyway!!?) I honestly believe it wouldn't be prudent to make a strat-vote calll given the potential for that regional Justin possibility...The only thing that can be said for sure, again, is...Absolutely no one with a progressive bone in their body should be voting Green in this riding if they don't want to see it go to the Cons (i.e. they could help out by going either Dipper or Liberal).


Vancouver-Centre...Vote Strategically (Softly) Liberal... Should be Hedy in a walk, right?....Well, the Con was actually reasonably close last time when that darned Green vote was 15%. So, sorry Dippers, but, given that, I'm making the strat-vote Red call here...Honestly, if it were any other election...(and if somebody actually has some hard numbers to share here, I'd be happy to reverse this one).


Vancouver East...Vote your conscience....She's no Libby Davies, but... The Dipper Kwan can't lose.


Vancouver Granville: Vote your conscience (with a big, fat green asterisk)... I guess this is one of the ones where I'm going against the party line...But....Looking at the four riding-specific polls I cannot see a strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Dipper....And, if you pull out the single outlying Mainstreet poll, I see no strong reason to make a strat-vote call for the Liberal either, even with the potential Justin effect...So, what to do?...Well...Both the Red and the Orange are strong enough that if nobody (and I mean nobody!) with a progressive bone in their body were to vote Green, the Stealth-Con (i.e. the candidate that nobody in the riding has actually seen) can be stopped, regardless who actually wins...OK?


Vancouver Kingsway: Vote your conscience...This is a lock for the Dipper, Davies (Don, not Libby)...And, in my opinion, rightfully so.


Vancouver South: Vote Strategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...The riding-specific polls strongly suggest that the Liberal candidate has a real shot to stop the Con Wai Young (who just may be the worst MP, literally, ever)....Importantly, the Dipper has NO CHANCE here...Thus, if Orange and Green leaners vote Liberal instead, the Con Young can be sent packing for good....Do it!....And if you O&G leaners need a little more impetus, please understand that the despicable 'Hookers and Heroin' print ad that the Cons ran recently was clearly designed to target a specific Liberal-leaning demo that make up a significant slice of the electorate in ridings like this.


Vancouver Quadra: Vote your conscience... A lock for the Liberal, Murray...And, in my opinion, rightfully so (despite her previous stint as elGordo's Earth Wind and Fire minister provincially).


Victoria: Vote your conscience...This is one that really bugs me given that the Green, Roberts, might have an outside shot to knock off the Dipper, Rankin (which is purely projection from Grenier given the lack of riding-specific polling data)...If there was even a smidgeon of a chance that the Con could win here I would make a strat-vote Orange call but there is not...So... Why does this one bug me so much if the Con can't win?...Well...It is Mr. Rankin who is the proven environmentalist here, not the former MoCo maven Ms. Roberts.


West Vancouver- Sunshine Coast - Rafe Mair Country: Vote Stategically (Very Strongly) Liberal...There have been four riding-specific polls by three different outfits here since August...All have the Liberal in front with the Con second...However, the Liberal lead is not that large...Importantly, the potential Green and Dipper vote is significant but neither can win...So...To ensure that the Con is stopped Orange and Green leaners must vote Liberal...OK?



______
If you want to look at numbers yourself, there is a really great aggregation of all the riding-specific polls in the country, including B.C.....Here....Eric Grenier's 'predictions' are....Here (but if you are not used to looking at/thinking about these be sure to read his disclaimer first [scroll down a little, here]).


.

33 comments:

thwap said...

That was a lot of work. I hope it influences some people.

RossK said...

Thanks Thwap--

Truth be told, it was better than screaming at the radio while listening to the Jays game this afternoon.

.

Eleanor Gregory said...

Appreciate your hard work. Your predictions/suggestions make a lot more sense than others making the rounds.

RossK said...

EG--

I agonized long and hard over Vancouver Granville...

(and thanks)

.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this.

West End Bob said...

Great job, RossK - Thanx!

Wish we had a viable alternative for Hedy in VanCentre - My "I'll be able to sleep tonight" vote has already been cast for the Green Party's Lisa Barrett, thanx to M'Lady Alison's endorsement . . . .

RossK said...

Anon-Above--

You're most welcome...I've been trying to get to it since the last round of riding-specific polls came out late last week, but family and my darned day job kept getting in the way.

_____

Bob--

I know how much Alison hates Strat-Voting, for all the right reasons, particularly when it leads to advantages for neoLibs...And, usually I'm much, much more selective with it myself, but I feel so strongly about the need to get our country back I made the decision to be agnostic this time and make any call that has the (realistic) chance of stopping the Con...That's why I am suggesting that folks who are on the green and orange fences might want to hold their noses and vote for the good Doctor instead.

.

.

West End Bob said...

RossK--

In Alison's defence, we were not discussing strat-voting. I asked her if she knew anything about Ms. Barrett and she was quite familiar with her as she was the Mayor of Bowen. That said, after meeting her at a Green event, she met my expectations and more.

As I said before, the "I'll be able to sleep tonight" vote works for me . . . .

RossK said...

Bob--

Thanks for the clarification.

And, I very much agree with the sleeping thing.

.

Danneau said...

Just a passing thought. Hopefully, most of us will wake up Tuesday, and hopefully to a new political horizon. That said, I don't think that any government that we're likely to elect in this round will take us to a future where we can all look each other in the eye and nod knowing that we're each looking after the others as well as ourselves. Let's not just go back to sleep. I know the word 'activist' has nasty connotations for many, but if activism, particularly quiet, reasoned activism of the type that listens as it acts, becomes the norm, we won't be so worried about the label, and it is we who have to make it so. I don't know if it means going beyond phone calls and letters, or that demonstrations will be necessary, but elected representatives need to know that they serve us, and at our pleasure. Somewhere here, we can concatenate the suggestions for action that will keep people galvanized so that we come to see that governance is much more compelling than any form of entertainment, that we can have fun at it, and that it needs to be a central focus of much of what we do. Many thanks to RossK for this and so many other wonderful insights and to those who have taken the time to agonize over, or even just consider, in light of some knowledge, where they will place that small, but oh-so-significant 'x' on a ballot.

motorcycleguy said...

I wholeheartedly agree with Danneau.....

And can you imagine fifty people a day? I said FIFTY people a day . . . 
Walkin' in, singin' a bar of "Alice's Restaurant" and walkin' out? Friends, 
They may think it's a MOVEMENT, and that's what it is: THE ALICE'S 
RESTAURANT ANTI-MASSACREE MOVEMENT! . . .

RossK said...

Danneau and mcg--

Thanks to both of you.

A whole lot.

And, when this is all said and done, here's to getting together on that 'ol Group W bench.


.

motorcycleguy said...

uh-oh....if Mr.Beer catches wind of the Group Dubla Yu bench meeting we're all gonna' get C51'd.....thinkin' it'll be goin' down with good music 'tho

RossK said...

mcg--

Absolutely!

(the good music part, I mean)


.

bcwaterboy said...

Shame about Kelowna Lake Country being such a Con lock-down when they have a more than stellar Liberal candidate in Stephen Fuhr not to mention the near neighbour in Central Okanagan with Karley Scott. Both Cons in these ridings Cannon and Albas while seemingly likeable gents are still hard-core harperites showing up for the photo ops when harper travels through the Okanagan, but really not much else of substance. For those 2 to go down tomorrow would truly be a story to be studied, but not likely to happen unfortunately even though the collective anti-Con vote would probably get rid of these two hitch-hikers.

Anonymous said...

SH: @bcwaterboy

Posted this before, in case you missed this:

Okanagan Life Magazine, Editor and Publisher, Paul Byrne:

"Desperate times call for desperate measures, so I am adding my voice, my in fluence as publisher and editor of Okanagan Life magazine and my democratic vote to oust Stephen Harper. I join millions of Canadians who understand this — and millions more who are realizing that Stephen Harper has to go.
Warm, caring and friendly Canadians must put a stop to his catastrophe in progress. Canada is a country built by men in denim who possessed monumental dreams. Today, men in suits with overwhelming greed are destroying it."
http://okanaganlife.com/anyone-but-harper/

karen said...

Thanks for all this RossK. I'm in PG-Northern Rockpile (oh, how I hate the frackery!). I had to vote last weekend, because I am working on the Island tomorrow, and I voted for the candidate I want.

I am not so certain that the riding is as much a con-lock as it was at the beginning of the election. The incumbent has said some things about MMIW that caused quite a bit of outrage. And I think there is a pretty concerted effort on the part of the First Nations to get out the vote.

RossK said...

bcw and SH--

If it it were up to the three of us we could make the collective happen.

The problem, in brass knuckle political terms, of course, would be deciding which 'other' candidate has the best shot and thus should be rallied around.

_______

karen--

If the Con-lock really is broken, does the Dipper in that riding really have the profile in the riding to move to the front (I'm assuming the Justin effect isn't so strong up there - but I could be wrong about that)?

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Anonymous said...

sunny tomorrow across canada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj1AesMfIf8

RossK said...

Anon-Above--

Which normally leads to increased voter turnout...

Fingers crossed!!!

(but I'm still really, really nervous)

.

Anonymous said...


Hi Ross,
thanks for all your posting on this federal election, I feel it is THE key election: get our Canada back or slide further into a police state.

I hope people vote early and leave enough time to vote. I really don't trust the integrity of Elections Canada. All the screw ups, seems like there are way, way too many to be all "accidental".

Keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow too! I could live with a Liberal minority and working with the NDP to get rid of Bill C-51 and bring in proportional rep (I want more Greens!)

Hope Harper doesn't manufacture some fake crisis as an excuse to hang onto power and delay Parliament.

Fingers and toes crossed!
---otr

Jeff Barkley said...

Thanks again for all your hard work over the past few months/years, Ross. The Ms and I saw Justin Trudeau this afternoon, in Surrey. The crowd was amazing! It went for about a block outside the venue's parking lot. I would guess a couple of thousand strong, the crowd was diverse in ethnic and age makeup. We spoke with some young people and they said they have been talking and all of their friends are voting. I have my fingers crossed. We are traditionally NDP but will be strategically voting Liberal tomorrow.

Jeff

Anonymous said...

Good morning.

In less than an hour, voters will join others from around the country. And we will be launching the largest political battle in the history of Canada.

“Canada.” That word should have new meaning for all of us today.

We can’t be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it’s fate that today is Election Day, and you will once again be voting for our freedom. From tyranny, oppression, and persecution: from Harperman.

We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should strategic voting win the day, Election Day will no longer be known just to voters, but as the day that Canada declared in one voice: We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight! We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive!

Today we celebrate our freedom!

Anonymous said...

Off to work now, then to vote this afternoon.

Here's a few things to lighten your day:

An image of a well worn meme updated for election day
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AibOwAwY1to/ViQxKJ22HgI/AAAAAAAA36s/DCEUhTCaMjw/s640/stop%2Bharper%2Bcalm.jpg

...and...

John Oliver's 15'20" take on the election:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V5ckcTSYu8

RossK said...

otr--

Heads, shoulders, knees, toes and fingers crossed!

______

Jeff!!!

Great to hear from you again. Thanks for the report

______

Anon-Two-Above--

All was peacefuls, orderly, good and distinctly all stocked Canadian at my polling station this morning!

_____

Thanks Anon-Above for both the meme and the JOliver.

.

Anonymous said...

RossK

Kelowna-Lakecountry has a strong NDP candidate in Norah Bowman. She teaches at Okanagan College, and should draw many votes because of that connection. She was on CBC radio with Chris Walker a few weeks ago and she said when she talked about social justice with her students, they asked her: why don't YOU run?. She asked herself that question too, and she did.

After Garnier was exposed, raising real questions about the "freshness" of the Trudeau brand, the call for an enquiry and questions about what other skeletons are in Red closets, things could be in flux.

A university/college town is bound to have high-info voters who will now be weighing the crap record of the Maritinized Liberals and the ability of Justin to stick-handle back room management who bankrolled him, and the MSM who bankrolled the management.

Norah's bio, from the NDP website:

"Norah is a long-time champion for social justice in our community. Alongside Tom Mulcair, she’s ready to fight for the change we deserve here in Kelowna—Lake Country.

Norah is a professor of English Literature and Gender and Women's Studies at Okanagan College, where she also serves as Chair of Interdisciplinary Studies.

On and off campus, she is dedicated to fairness and inclusion. She co-founded a free monthly community education forum on social justice. She has co-organized Tsilhqot'in First Nations solidarity action campaigns opposing inappropriate mining. And she co-coordinated a local response to the Harper Conservatives’ omnibus bill that gutted federal protections for our lakes and rivers."

Anonymous said...

As a rule, Ndp- As a fact, I have to go to Liberal to vote out the Harper machine. I was out in the Fraser Valley on the weekend. I saw the Harper campaign bus driving down the highway. I was sure that his Harperness was sitting beside the bus driver. It turned out to be a cardboard cutout. The sad thing is the cardboard would make a much better PM. It reeked of a disillusion fool, trying to cling to power- VOTE!

Anonymous said...

RossK,

SH here, I was in a rush (9:20 am) to get my thoughts down and I forget to id myself.

ps. Steve's desperation, the Garnier truth moment and Tom's "up" demeanour, have damped down my angst. I listened to Cross-Country Checkup yesterday and if Harper does get in, and given the tone of the mostly, savvy callers, my sense is that finally, people will not lay down and take it.

Anonymous said...

SH

Just read Andrew Coyne resigned over muzzling @ Nat Po and is endorsing an NDP candidate.

Not surprising, here's his read on Justin:

"the Trudeauvian gaffe generally involves a quite deliberate statement, presented not flippantly or off-hand but in a determined effort to sound provocative or profound. If they instead strike the listener as ill-judged, it is because he seems to have invested so little actual thought in them. It is in the gulf between his intellectual reach and grasp that his reputation as a ninny has been earned."
I'll put links up to resignation and Coyne piece

Anonymous said...

SH:
Andrew CoyneVerified account

‏@acoyne

So anyway… I have resigned as editor of Editorials and Comment for the National Post, effective immediately. I will remain a
columnist.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/andrew-coyne-justin-trudeaus-gaffes-reveal-the-gulf-between-his-intellectual-reach-and-grasp

RossK said...

Thanks Anon and SH--

Will refrain from commenting on candidates and election specifics today, election day...

Re: Mr. Coyne's 'resignation'...

'Tis interesting that his principles only seem to go half-way....

.

Anonymous said...

SH @ RossK, understood re your decision to refrain.

My thinking is, that the Publishing Ed and other whipped management were in agreement with him. To satisfy the Bay Street Old Boys and other assorted Crony advertisers, they did a little-face-saving-falling-on-sword impression to placate their benefactors. Money trumps ethics. Clever and very marketable Andrew found a way to work around the MSM system and survive to write another day.

Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
15. The short-form reasoning: the Conservatives don’t deserve to be re-elected, and the Liberals don’t deserve a majority.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
14. I think that’s all I need to say on the subject. If anyone’s still interested, I will be voting for the NDP candidate in my riding.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
13. So to protect my reputation and to preserve my editorial freedom as a columnist, I felt it necessary to resign the editorial position.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
12. While Postmedia’s intervention was unprecedented in my experience, I could not allow the precedent to stand.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
11. And b) that I could not do my job as a columnist if I was obliged to stay silent where these conflicted with those of management.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
10. My concerns were and are merely a) that there should be no suggestion that I was personally endorsing or voting for the Conservatives.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
9. Nobody has a God-given right to be published and the country will get along very well without me telling them how to vote.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
8. Likewise they have a perfect right to decide who and what they wish to publish in their pages.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
7. To be clear, the owners and managers of a newspaper have a perfect right to set the paper’s editorial line as they wish.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
5. I don’t see public disagreement as confusing. I see it as honest. Readers, in my view, are adults & understand that adults can disagree.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
4. My view was that that was what I was paid to do as a columnist: give my honest opinion on issues of public interest.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
3. … dissenting from the Post’s endorsement of the Conservatives would have confused readers and embarrassed the paper.
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
2. Postmedia executives and I had a professional disagreement. Their view was that the publication of a column by the editorial page editor…
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Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne 5h5 hours ago
So anyway… I have resigned as editor of Editorials and Comment for the National Post, effective immediately. I will remain a columnist.

RossK said...

SH--

Mr. Coyne will 'remain', indeed.



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