Wednesday, May 15, 2013

BC Election After-After Party...Is There Anything That The Pollsters Didn't Get Catastrophically Wrong?





Especially if you just look at just Vancouver, proper:

Thanks very much for the most non-complex/non-algorithmic/non-allegorical (ie. simple arithmetic) analysis, above, that was provided by a reader off-line...Pretty interesting, no?....Of course, if you take this and Van Isle too?....Well, it tells you that the Dippers really and truly did get stomped, and actually did way, way worse than even that overall awful 39% in the rest of the Province...Which is my point about potential pollster sample skewing in the sub-header...
In case you missed it, Eric Grenier is worth reading today....If only because he is honest enough to say that he doesn't know what the heckfire happened...Furthermore, at this point he really has no idea how to fix the problem...And I honestly wonder, as Bob Mackin kinda/sorta suggested late yesterday afternoon, if the campaigns themselves even knew what was coming as of 8:01pm last night...



Anonymous said...

What if the real pollsters got it right, and the purchased pollsters instead of showing fake close gaps, decided to show a little wider.
The ND's and their as yet to vote supporters assumed they had it won. their voters figured they may as well stay home rather than vote, and the Liebs got on their phones and got out their vote figuring the ND's had done just what they did.

kootcoot said...

With almost 400,000 early votes apparently not yet counted, are folks maybe rushing to judgement a little prematurely? With that many votes floating around, it would seem to me they might be relevant, depending of course on which ridings they are from, and assuming they aren't all spoiled like Christy's may have been! I guess we also have to stretch our sense of trust to Elections BC actually counting them properly too. Federally and provincially it is getting more and more difficult to have faith in such supposedly non-partisan agencies these days.

The only thing that keeps me from either offing myself right now or going on a killing spree is remembering how Nixon won such a landslide in 1972, and look what happened to him. Also, remember Christy won an election at SFU once upon a time, but somehow that didn't stand up and she may have even been expelled.

Another good thing (desperately seeking something positive to take away) about this result is that now the LIEberals themselves will have to deal with the actual fiscal situation they have created instead of dumping it onto the dippers.

I sometimes feel glad that Mary didn't have to suffer through the disappointment of last night and accept the fact, which I fear we all must, that the villains of the BC Rail Theft will get off scot free, except maybe in the judgement of some historians far in the future when they (the BC liaRs)and we are all dead and gone....that is if any documentation survives from the government that doesn't write stuff down and can't remember fuck all!

Kim said...

Oh Kootcoot, you just gave me hope. If I had known that my ballot wouldn't be counted, I would not have advance voted!

Anonymous said...

Good point on the advance poll vote.

I just assumed they would be counted first.
If I knew they were to be counted last, if at all, I would waited 'til yesterday.

Anonymous said...

The Liberals in house pollster claimed he had them up (on his Twitter feed)...interesting because the guy is from Ontario, worked for Rob Ford and dum de dum the federal Tories.

Now, I got a call from BC Liberal voter outreach claiming I was a supporter which is odd, because I've
never had anything to do with them and, furthermore, have no phone listed in the name they asked for.

Perhaps they're using some sort of data base we don't know about for voter outreach?

RossK said...


Who, exactly, was that?

Was it Nick Kouvalis?



Sorry to be the bearer of potential bad news Koot et al., but this is my understanding - taken from E-BC's description of the 'initial count' done last night:

"...The initial count is the preliminary count of ballots for an election or by-election. It includes the count of ballots cast under general voting and advance voting. It does not include the count of any
absentee ballots; these are counted at final count..."

So it's only the absentee votes (some of which were, of course, really 'advance' like, say, those cast by these kids) and special ballots remaining...Is that really 400K do you reckon?


Anonymous said...

Just think, the day after Christy becomes the unelected Premier based on her Jobs & LNG...

" Indian company H-Energy is planning to build a $3-billion LNG plant and export terminal in Melford, N.S.
Managing director Darshan Hiranandani said Wednesday the facility could be operational by 2020." (G&M) today

Christy needs another trip to India or more Bollywood ?

Guy in Vic

Anonymous said...

Whoever ran this campaign should have his ass kicked down the road so hard and so long that he never goes near another. Nice guys don’t win in today’s political society. They have tread marks across their forehead just like Mr. Dix does today. Dix was just another Carol James, this time with a penis.

My feeling all along was to jump out of the gate like junkyard dogs and rip the living shit out of every Liberal and every sleazy corrupt thing they ever did and keep beating away one them till election night..

Another four years of pillage and theft.

The NDP should start as soon as Christy Clark decides which sheep will be sacrificed for her try at getting re-elected. Start the campaign with why she suddenly resigned over the BC Rail deal and keep beating the living shit out of every sleazy, corrupt Lieberal deal after that. In fact be creative, add any outrageous bs that can be thought of and let them deny it.
Once the crap is spread its very hard to clean off. Just ask the NDP
They have absolutely nothing to lose now.

sue said...


Yes that was Nick Kouvalis tweeting that. His wife was also tweeting; she works @ Campaign Research too @amberjoy is her nic; she retweeted lots of congratulatory messages today.............

No need to post this if you don't want to.

Anonymous said...

They need cash to do that my friend and that is the other issue here, which is the great amounts of corporate funding to fund all that negativity and viciousness. Maybe it was cheaper to be nice!
Having said that the list of corruption is interminable with the Linos and some folks could only hold the old so called NDP issues of the 90's as that is the sum of the ability to retain for many of todays brains, memories of when they had less cyber damage to their attention span.
Really despise the press here in BC.Canceled the Globe and have no paper paper to read anymore. Disgusting pieces of stink the msm these days. Definitely not worth reading. You will notice they will start to criticise the Linos kind of when they want you to buy papers. We are close to the land of Rupert Murdoch information and no one will get elected till they pay the pauper. In this case the pauper already owns the Linos so it is a done deal.

RossK said...

Thanks All -

(and thanks, especially, for the details Sue)

Get it all out!