Friday, May 03, 2013

The Polls...Where Have The Changes Come From?



Yesterday I was all set to write something about methodology to help explain why the Forum poll had things tightening so dramatically (skews towards an older demo, for example)...

Especially given some of the more interesting stuff that Forum's proprietor Loren Bozinoff had to say which, in my opinion, demonstrated that he might not have a really good grasp about what's going on 'round here, or how support is distributed regionally.

But, in the end, I held off to see what Angus Reid would have to say with their latest.

And the upshot is that, based on their most recent polling on May 1st and May 2nd (i.e. after both debates) it looks like things really have tightened.

Because, overall, Mario Canseco is now pegging things 41-34, Dipper, which is down from 45-31 last time out.

So, is this a blanket, 'Big Mo' - type change, given that the differences for both the NDP (4% down) and the BC Liberals (3% up), overall are right on the edges of the MOE?

Well, regionally, I don't think so in most parts of the province except for the Interior where things look to have, perhaps, broken back to the BC Liberals, hard (43/32, Dipper last time vs. 42/29, BC Liberal this time) which is interesting, but not that unexpected given the historical norms...

As for the Demographic breakdowns?

Well, I think there are a couple of things that the Dippers really should be concerned about.

And not on the income level ladder, which is where I thought the big change might have occurred (I thought maybe it would be in the middle income bracket).

Firstly, as utterly bizarre as it may seem, especially given what has been going on around here the last couple of weeks, it would appear that the Wizards and the junior Segretti Army have improved the approval rating of their candidate with women considerably while they have simultaneously whacked Mr. Dix on that score (was 49/24 Dix last time...Is now 43/35 Dix).

Secondly, and this is the really scary part as this group tends to turn out to actually vote, the Freedom 55 Demo has really swung from solid for Dix last time out (43/35) to, essentially, a dead heat this week (40/39, Dix)


Can things keep changing as fast in the next two weeks as they have in the last two weeks?

Well, regionally, if there is any more leakage in Metro Vancouver that could spell trouble, although here there appears to be no loss of Dipper support, and (surprise!) the slight gain for the BCL looks to have come from the Greens.

But if women voters continue to swing towards the Sparkle Ponies and a few more older folks buy into the Fear?

Well... That would really have me worried if I was Dipper strategist.




Bill Tieleman said...

Martyn Brown: "So chill out, New Democrats. The sky is not falling yet again, as it has in so many past elections."

RossK said...

Fair enough Bill.

But what about the actual demos.

You really think these are not two areas of concern?