Monday, January 21, 2013

The Lotuslandian Pro-Media 'Analysis' Of The Angus Reid Poll...

...Mr. Smyth Goes To Neg-Mo.

This morning we dug deep into the latest Angus Reid poll to demonstrate that Christy Clark is still in big, big trouble on all fronts, because:

1) Her party's upward tick has nowhere to go now that her operatives and/or their plumbers have destroyed the BC Conservative Party

2) The support for the Dippers has not dipped over the last 12 months

3) She is getting her gong banged in every significant demo save one - rich people.

4) She has 'momentum' rating of minus thirty-two (yes, that's minus, as in 'negative' 32)

Then, early this afternoon, based on a comment from one of our regular readers, 'Lew', we wondered if the local punditry would soon go all superficial and instead go the other way....


It turns out that at least one of those pundits, Mr. Michael Smyth (backed by a more than willing Header writer), has taken the bait and jumped the super(ficial)-shark.

First, here is the header:

B.C. Liberal ads are working, so you’ll keep seeing them

Poll shows Christy Clark’s party is gaining on the NDP

Next, here is Mr. Smyth's lede under said header:

Want to know why the Christy Clark government is spending $15 million of taxpayers’ money on feel-good TV commercials, despite the withering criticism they take for doing it?

Want to know why Clark’s Liberals slime NDP leader Adrian Dix with brutal attack ads, when most people claim they’re sick and tired of nasty, personal politics?

Because it all works, that’s why. Just check the latest polls.

The newest Angus Reid survey shows Clark’s Liberals slowly but surely gaining on Dix’s NDP. The new poll pegs Liberal support at 31 per cent, their best showing in more than a year.

The NDP, meanwhile, dropped one point to 46 per cent.

That’s still a hefty 15-point advantage for the NDP, big enough for a solid majority if the lead holds up till the May 14 election.

But big leads rarely hold up in B.C. politics. It always gets closer. And the numbers are moving in Christy Clark’s direction...

And why don't big leads hold in BC Politics, Mr Smyth?


I mean, seriously, can there be any greater example of why pushback, pushback based on actual in-depth analysis rather than super-sharkian codswallop about how a 1 percentage point drop in a snapshot poll with a 3.5% MoE is significant, actually matters around here?


Thanks again to Grant for the heads-up in the comments....



Don F. said...

I sure would be interested in seeing some polling numbers today after Mr. Coleman shat all over the good people of Surrey. Lets see....How many people was that?

RossK said...

Good point Don.


G West said...

Quick point. Mr Smyth knows very little and he's not afraid of showing his lack of knowledge in public.

I've actually taken my 'I am a part of the socialist hordes' button out of mothballs - you'd be surprised how many people have asked me how they can get theirs!

RossK said...




Scotty on Denman said...

Is that minus 32 like 32 feet per second squared?

Will the push back provide a terminal velocity some time before May 14 or will that happen on the very day, like the first thing that goes through a skeeter's mind when she hits yer windshield (her rear end)...?