Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Campaign Kick-Off...Do The Latest Numbers From Angus Reid Actually Suggest That A Total Eclipse...

...Of The Golden Era's Already Setting Sun Is Coming on May 15th?

What am I babbling on about this time, you may be asking.

After all, the Dippers are down 3% overall from last month.

And the BC Liberals are holding despite the corrosive democracy destroying scandals, the bogus Bollywood thingy, and the latest demonstrations that their jobs plan and their fiscal plan are both complete fictions.


Nevermind all that for the moment and instead just take a guess which demo the fiction writer-in-chief and her BC Liberal Party friends and political uncles still have all locked up...




You know the answer already, right?

And while that august group may have lots of the moola it doesn't have a whole lot of the votes.

And besides, their man Jim Shepard has already pulled up stakes and left the scene of the smear for the duration...



The slight sways in the overalls and leader likeages, etc., probably do mean something.

But the fact that the Dippers are leading solidly in every single region of the province and in every  significant demo except one, this despite the fact that their leader is barely sniffing 30% on the 'Who's The Best Premier?' board, sure smells like a eclipsicatory wipeout to me.

Now, while I haven't been able to find the data for 2001, I'm pretty sure it's out there somewhere (NVG?)...And I can tell you right now, I would take pretty short odds on the ticket that says  that those 2001 polls looked very similar, but in Gordo's favour, at the start of that campaign except , of course, for one thing.

Which is that the individual income demo that likely gave the Ujji and the Dippers a little love back in the day was probably at the other end of the spectrum.


Sorry to not be all overall-based Ron Obvious on this one.

But that's my take (so far).




North Van's Grumps said...

You're not looking for this sort of stats.... but maybe you'd like to, .... have UBC Sauder School of Business do another, LAST ONE for the BC Liberals, Election Stock Market, basically a fortune teller Prediction....

The 2001 UBC/National Post Election Stock Market is a financial market in which the ultimate values of the contracts being traded are based on the outcome of the next British Columbia Election to the Provincial Parliament in Victoria on Wednesday, May 16, 2001. For details regarding the contracts being traded consult the information in the trader's manual. appear below on this page.

Popular Vote Market

Seats Market
BC01.S.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 94.5 75 76
BC01.S.NDP New Democratic Party 4.0 3 3
BC01.S.BCR B.C. Reform Party 0.1 0 0
BC01.S.OTR Other Parties 2.6 2 0
Popular Vote Market
BC01.P.LIB B.C. Liberal Party 60.5 57.5
BC01.P.NDP New Democratic Party 17.3 21.6
BC01.P.BCR B.C. Reform Party 1.2 0.2
BC01.P.BCG B.C. Green Party 11.7 12.4
BC01.P.OTR Other Parties 7.5 8.3

North Van's Grumps said...

Here's a reversal of fortunes from the 2001 election:

Vancouver public Library OnLine

Dosanjh calls B.C. election for May 16: Governing NDP faces tough fight; B.C. Liberals, have not been in power in 50 years:

Meissner, Dirk. Daily Bulletin [Kimberley, B.C] 19 Apr 2001:

"The (BC NDP) Government party's popularity has hovered in the 20 per cent range in polls since Premier Ujjal Dosanjh took over.

In contrast, some polls have indicated that the Opposition Liberals enjoy a popularity in the 60 per cent range."

G West said...

The thing about Ronnie (Obvious that is) is that everything boils down to a sports metaphor...and, as such, it's so much more INTERESTING if the outcome is in doubt!

Grant G said...

From Sun News website...Let the Haters live..I always felt their audience was angry old haters..Chech out the below..Sheesh


A BC NDP candidate has resigned over a controversial blog post in which she blasted compensation paid to First Nations, saying "if their ancestors sold out too cheap, it's not my fault." Was she right to resign?